London has considered three possible scenarios after the Britain’s exit from the European Union. UK Ministry of Finance argues that the exit from the EU would lead to 6% drop in UK GDP.
This forecast is based on the 200-page report, which has not yet been officially published, and on the option that EU will sign with UK the same trade agreement as with Canada.
On the one hand, it is expected that leaving the EU would lead to higher prices for goods and services, costing British households £4,300 ($6,000) a year.
On the other hand, it is noted that signing of "Canadian" trade agreement with the European Union will be not so profitable, but also not so losing.
The report examined three possible scenarios after the British exit from the bloc.
Besides the signing of trade agreement, the authors of the report also assume the preservation of the country's membership in the European Economic Community (the Norwegian version) or trade with EU on the general principles of the WTO (the Russian version).
The experts believe that "Norwegian" variant is the most profitable, while the "Russian" variant is the most uncomfortable. "Canadian" variant has been selected for more meticulous analysis, after which it is considered as a medium-gain option.
The report also states that even with the most profitable "Norwegian" trade scenario, the British economy will suffer from substantial losses, after the exit from the EU.
George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2010 and Member of Parliament, said: "What is clear in this debate is you cannot pretend we’d be somehow better off outside the EU—we’d be worse off outside the EU, the analysis was a sober and serious look at the costs of remaining in the EU or leaving it."
The International Monetary Fund also warned about the heavy consequences of Brexit. Its specialists have noted that these effects will occur on the regional and global scale.
The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, also known as the EU referendum, is scheduled to take place in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar on 23 June 2016.
Membership of the European Union has been a topic of debate in the United Kingdom since the country joined the European Economic Community, as it was known then, in 1973.